Why this page exists
Every paid and free stock-tip provider in India advertises an "85% accuracy" or a "₹1 lakh became ₹10 lakh" headline. Almost none of them publish a verifiable, time-stamped, full-history record of every call they have made — including the losers. This page exists because we believe a research desk that asks for your trust should publish numbers you can audit.
The "survivorship bias" trap most advisors fall into
A common pattern in tip-provider marketing is to highlight 5 or 10 winners and ignore the 50 calls that did not work. This is survivorship bias — measuring only the survivors. Once you remove the losers from the dataset, any random list of stocks will look brilliant.
A few simple checks can expose survivorship bias in any advisor's claims:
- Ask for the total number of calls published in the last quarter, not just the winners.
- Ask whether entry prices were timestamped live, or noted later (post-hoc).
- Ask for the worst losing month and the maximum drawdown on cumulative P&L.
- Ask whether the published track record includes brokerage and slippage assumptions.
- Ask for SEBI Research Analyst registration details.
What "performance" actually means — the metrics that matter
Hit rate is the most-quoted metric and the most misleading on its own. We publish a multi-dimensional view because no single number captures advisor quality:
| Metric | Definition | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Hit Rate | % of closed calls where Target 1 was hit before stop-loss | Easy to game alone — must be paired with risk-reward |
| Avg Return / Call | Gross return % on each closed call, before brokerage | Shows the size of typical wins |
| Avg Loss / Losing Call | Average % loss on calls that hit stop-loss | Critical — small wins + large losses = net loss |
| Risk-Reward Ratio | Avg target % ÷ avg stop-loss % at call publication | Edge can come from R:R even with sub-50% hit rate |
| Expectancy / Call | (Hit Rate × Avg Win) − ((1−Hit Rate) × Avg Loss) | The single most honest number for advisor quality |
| Avg Holding Days | Calendar days from entry to exit | Tells you whether the segment matches your style |
| Max Drawdown | Worst peak-to-trough on cumulative P&L | How bad the worst stretch was — emotional reality check |
| Total Calls | Number of closed calls in the period | Statistical significance — 5 calls is not a track record |
How we measure — the methodology in detail
Call lifecycle
Every call moves through a strict state machine: Open → Active → Closed. A call is closed when one of these happens, in order of priority:
- Target 1 hit — the high (for buy calls) or low (for sell calls) reaches the target price during market hours.
- Stop-loss hit — the low (for buy calls) or high (for sell calls) breaches the stop-loss price during market hours.
- Time exit — the published holding window expires without target or SL being hit; trade is closed at the day's close.
- Manual exit — analyst publishes an early-exit note (rare; only on material thesis change).
Entry and exit price discipline
- Entry price = the price at the moment the call goes live in our system, server-timestamped. Not back-dated, not "approximate", not the day's low retro-fitted to flatter the call.
- Exit price = the actual trigger level (Target 1 or Stop-loss). We do not retroactively claim the day's extreme as our exit — the trigger is what we report.
- No back-testing in this dashboard. Every call counted here was published forward, in real time, with a public audit trail.
Cost assumptions
Honest reporting requires deducting realistic costs. Our published "net" numbers assume:
- Slippage: 0.10% on each side (entry + exit) for cash-equity, higher for less-liquid stocks.
- Brokerage: ₹20 per executed order, both sides.
- STT, exchange fees, GST: as applicable per segment.
These assumptions are conservative — most active traders with ATS's low-brokerage plans pay less. We'd rather over-state costs than under-state them.
How to read the performance dashboard above
- The top KPI strip shows headline numbers — hit rate, average return, average holding days and total calls — for the rolling last 90 days.
- The per-segment table breaks performance down across Intraday, Short Term, Long Term, F&O and Commodity. Different segments have different baselines — a 60% hit rate in long-term investing is unremarkable; a 60% hit rate in intraday is genuinely strong.
- The trend chart plots rolling 30-day hit rate and cumulative P&L — you see the texture of the track record, not just the average.
- The worst-month vs best-month range is published explicitly. If the dispersion is wide, the strategy is more variable than the average suggests.
Why hit rate alone is misleading
Hit rate: 90%. Outstanding!
Net P&L: (9 × 0.5%) − (1 × 6%) = 4.5% − 6% = −1.5%.
Headline lies. Expectancy is the truth.
This is why we always publish expectancy per call alongside hit rate. Expectancy is the average rupee outcome of taking the next call — and it is the only number a trader actually cares about. A strategy with 50% hit rate and 1:3 risk-reward (lose 1 to make 3) has positive expectancy and will compound; a 90% hit rate with 1:0.1 risk-reward will not.
How to use this data when picking a research advisor
Whether you stay with us or evaluate any other advisor, ask these five questions and demand evidence:
- Do they publish ALL closed calls, including losses? If only winners are visible, walk away.
- Is entry price live-timestamped? Post-hoc back-fitting of entry prices is the most common (and most undetectable) form of marketing fraud.
- Do they publish drawdown data? A track record without drawdown disclosure is incomplete — you need to know the worst stretch you might sit through emotionally.
- Are they SEBI Research Analyst (RA) or Investment Adviser (IA) registered? Anyone publishing buy/sell recommendations to the public in India must be SEBI-registered. Verify the number on the SEBI portal — fake RA numbers exist.
- Do they disclose methodology and cost assumptions? Net numbers without explicit slippage and brokerage assumptions can mean almost anything.
SEBI compliance & transparency commitments
ATS Share Brokers operates under SEBI Registration No. INZ000205136. Our research and recommendations are governed by the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations, 2014, including past-performance disclosure norms.
- Every published call carries the disclaimer that past performance is not indicative of future returns.
- We do not offer assured returns or guaranteed tips — any advisor who does is operating outside SEBI regulations.
- Conflict-of-interest disclosure: ATS Share Brokers also operates a brokerage business. Fees and brokerage are disclosed separately; we do not "front-run" our own published recommendations.
- Investor grievances can be raised via SEBI SCORES or the SEBI SmartODR portal.
- Our full grievance redressal mechanism, conflict disclosures and rights & obligations document are published in the Footer of this site.
What the numbers tell you (interpretation example)
Suppose the dashboard above shows: Intraday — 240 closed calls, 62% hit rate, avg gross return 1.4%, avg loss on losers 1.2%, expectancy +0.41%. How to read that:
- 240 calls over a quarter is statistically meaningful — not a curated highlight reel.
- 62% hit rate for intraday is solid; pure-noise random calls hover around 50%.
- Avg win 1.4% / avg loss 1.2% means roughly 1:1.2 risk-reward — not stellar, but enough.
- Expectancy +0.41% per call gross translates to positive net P&L only after costs and slippage are deducted — you must run the maths for your own brokerage plan.
The same lens applies to Short Term, Long Term, F&O and Commodity segments — different baselines, different acceptable expectancy thresholds.